The Prediction Markets

What will Keir Starmer say during Prime Minister's Questions?

Closed
Jul 9, 2026
Traded
$35K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 9, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Defense / Defence
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Defense / Defence
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
NHS / Healthcare
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
NHS / Healthcare
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Election
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Resign / Resigned / Resignation
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Resign / Resigned / Resignation
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
King
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
King
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$644
Trade this on Kalshi
Immigrant / Immigration
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Immigrant / Immigration
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3028 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: UK Parliament

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Defense / Defence
  • NHS / Healthcare
  • Iran / Iranian

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Keir Starmer say during Prime Minister's Questions?". Defense / Defence last traded at 87%. Next is NHS / Healthcare at 82%. $35K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 9, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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