The Prediction Markets

What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?

Closes
Dec 10, 2026, in 35 days
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Productivity 90%

Next is AI / Artificial Intelligence at 81%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Productivity
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Productivity
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Central Bank
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Central Bank
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Kalshi
Geopolitical
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Geopolitical
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Kalshi
Projection
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Projection
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Balance Sheet
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balance Sheet
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Uncertainty
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uncertainty
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation Expectation
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation Expectation
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Kalshi
Credit
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Credit
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent / Independence
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independent / Independence
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 17 more outcomes
Shock
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shock
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Anchor / Anchored
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anchor / Anchored
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Restrictive
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Restrictive
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
President
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
President
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Kalshi
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Family Fight / Family Feud
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Family Fight / Family Feud
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Volatility
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volatility
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Dollar
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dollar
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Japan / Japanese / Yen
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Japan / Japanese / Yen
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Dissent
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dissent
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Risk Management
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk Management
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Diesel
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diesel
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Egg
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egg
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Consumer Confidence
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Consumer Confidence
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Productivity
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence
  • Central Bank

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Kevin Warsh say during his December press conference?". Productivity leads at 90%. Next is AI / Artificial Intelligence at 81%. $6K has traded across 27 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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