The Prediction Markets

What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?

Starts in 6 daysKickoff
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Central Bank 93%

Next is Good Question at 93%. The venues differ most on Good Afternoon (Polymarket 7%, Kalshi 9%), a 2.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Central Bank
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Central Bank
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Good Question
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Good Question
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Polymarket
Good Day
92.5%
Polymarket 94%polled, 53s agoKalshi 92%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Good Day
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Good Day
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 95¢.

Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
84%
Polymarket 84%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Polymarket
AI / Artificial Intelligence
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Restrictive
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Restrictive
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Productivity
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Productivity
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Shock
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shock
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
CapEx / Capital Expenditure
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
CapEx / Capital Expenditure
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Pressure / Stagflation
75%
Polymarket 75%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pressure / Stagflation
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 55 more outcomes
Uncertainty
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uncertainty
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Independent / Independence
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Independent / Independence
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$129
Trade this on Kalshi
Conflict / Middle East
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conflict / Middle East
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$520
Trade this on Polymarket
President / Trump
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
President / Trump
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Polymarket
Price 30+ times
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Price 30+ times
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Polymarket
Inflation Expectation
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation Expectation
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Kalshi
Balance Sheet
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Balance Sheet
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Geopolitical
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Geopolitical
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$730
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$483
Trade this on Kalshi
Credit
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Credit
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
President
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
President
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Inflation 20+ times
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inflation 20+ times
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Anchor / Anchored
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anchor / Anchored
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Kalshi
Commodity
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Commodity
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Dollar
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dollar
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Kalshi
SI / Super Intelligence
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
SI / Super Intelligence
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Family Fight / Family Feud
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Family Fight / Family Feud
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Kalshi
Projection
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Projection
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Payroll
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Payroll
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Polymarket
Pandemic
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pandemic
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Kalshi
Pandemic / Recession
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pandemic / Recession
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Polymarket
Unchanged
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unchanged
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oversight
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oversight
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Soft / Softening
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Soft / Softening
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Unchanged / Dissent
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Unchanged / Dissent
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Polymarket
Software
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Software
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Softening
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Softening
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$681
Trade this on Kalshi
Probability
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Probability
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Kalshi
Risk Management
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk Management
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Kalshi
Dissent
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dissent
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$462
Trade this on Kalshi
QE / Quantitative Easing
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
QE / Quantitative Easing
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Shutdown / Shut Down
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shutdown / Shut Down
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$117
Trade this on Kalshi
Tax
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tax
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$582
Trade this on Kalshi
Good Afternoon
8.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 53s agoKalshi 9%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Good Afternoon
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Good Afternoon
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$999
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gold / Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Recession
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Recession
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
QT / Quantitative Tightening
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
QT / Quantitative Tightening
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Volatility
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volatility
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Kalshi
Consumer Confidence
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Consumer Confidence
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$363
Trade this on Kalshi
Diesel
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diesel
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Egg
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Egg
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Gold
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gold
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Kalshi
National Debt
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Debt
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
ADP
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ADP
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Kalshi
Japan / Japanese / Yen
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Japan / Japanese / Yen
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Renovation
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renovation
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bitcoin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bitcoin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Stagflation
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stagflation
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
No Qualifying Event-
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
No Qualifying Event-
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 5 differences

Where they differ

  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 6:35 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 29, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve
Show full rule comparison
  • Who counts differs: Kalshi earnings-call markets count the company's representatives and the call operator; Polymarket counts anyone who speaks during the event, including analysts.
  • Word forms: Kalshi pays on the exact phrase and its plural or possessive form only; Polymarket's Mentions contract terms define their own form rules. Check edge words before treating a pair as hedged.
  • Scheduling: 'next' occasions are matched when both venues' scheduled dates are within 10 days (earnings calls) or 2 days (rallies, press conferences, PMQs). A rescheduled event can resolve differently on each venue.
  • Only outcomes with the same phrase set and the same minimum count are linked.
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 6:35 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 29, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Central Bank
  • Good Question
  • Good Day

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Central Bank for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Kevin Warsh say during his October press conference?". Central Bank leads at 93%. Next is Good Question at 93%. $79K has traded across 65 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 29, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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