The Prediction Markets

What will Mamdani say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 40 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Afford / Affordable / Affordability 81%

Next is Safe / Safer / Safety at 76%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$417
Trade this on Kalshi
Safe / Safer / Safety
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Safe / Safer / Safety
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump / President
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump / President
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Kalshi
Home / Housing
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Home / Housing
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Tax
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tax
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Childcare / Child Care
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Childcare / Child Care
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$291
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm / Election
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm / Election
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Kalshi
Socialist / Socialism
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Socialist / Socialism
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
ICE
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Wall Street
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wall Street
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Landlord / Tenant
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Landlord / Tenant
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
NYPD
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
NYPD
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Budget / Deficit
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Budget / Deficit
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Grocery
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grocery
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Billionaire
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billionaire
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Free Bus / Fast & Free
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Free Bus / Fast & Free
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Immigrant / Immigration
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Immigrant / Immigration
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability
  • Safe / Safer / Safety
  • Trump / President

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Mamdani say during NYT DealBook Summit?". Afford / Affordable / Affordability leads at 81%. Next is Safe / Safer / Safety at 76%. $2K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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