The Prediction Markets

What will Marco Rubio say during Federalist Society speech?

Closes
Nov 27, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Sovereign / Sovereignty 73%

Next is Communist / Communism at 70%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Sovereign / Sovereignty
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sovereign / Sovereignty
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$504
Trade this on Kalshi
Communist / Communism
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Communist / Communism
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanction
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanction
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$432
Trade this on Kalshi
Constitution / Constitutional
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Constitution / Constitutional
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Cuba / Cuban
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cuba / Cuban
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Supreme Court
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supreme Court
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
National Security
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Security
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Terrorist / Terrorism
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Terrorist / Terrorism
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Russian
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Russian
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Venezuela / Maduro
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela / Maduro
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrat
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran (3+ times)
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (3+ times)
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
2028 / Campaign
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
2028 / Campaign
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine / Ukrainian
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ceasefire
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ceasefire
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jensen / Nvidia
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jensen / Nvidia
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$83
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sovereign / Sovereignty
  • Communist / Communism
  • Sanction

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Marco Rubio say during Federalist Society speech?". Sovereign / Sovereignty leads at 73%. Next is Communist / Communism at 70%. $2K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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