The Prediction Markets

What will Mark Carney say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 22 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Tariff 72%

Next is Defense / Defence at 71%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Tariff
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Defense / Defence
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Defense / Defence
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Arctic
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arctic
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$90
Trade this on Kalshi
Rare Earth / Mineral
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rare Earth / Mineral
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
NATO
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
NATO
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
USMCA / CUSMA
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
USMCA / CUSMA
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Pipeline
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pipeline
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine / Ukrainian
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Lumber
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lumber
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
51st State
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
51st State
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Tariff
  • Defense / Defence
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Mark Carney say during NYT DealBook Summit?". Tariff leads at 72%. Next is Defense / Defence at 71%. $1K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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