The Prediction Markets

What will Markwayne Mullin say during the Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security?

Closed
Jun 2, 2026
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 2, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Event does not qualify
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sanctuary
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sanctuary
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$193
Trade this on Kalshi
Shutdown / Shut Down
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shutdown / Shut Down
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Border
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Border
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Election
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$74
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$171
Trade this on Kalshi
Deport / Deportation
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deport / Deportation
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrat
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Kristi / Noem
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kristi / Noem
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
National Security
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Security
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Biden
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$316
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3839 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Event does not qualify
  • Sanctuary
  • Shutdown / Shut Down

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Markwayne Mullin say during the Oversight Hearing on Homeland Security?". Event does not qualify last traded at 67%. Next is Sanctuary at 30%. $10K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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