The Prediction Markets

What will MercadoLibre say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Feb 2, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

AI / Artificial Intelligence 90%

Next is Advertising at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$549
Trade this on Kalshi
Advertising
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Advertising
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Kalshi
Delivery
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delivery
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Kalshi
Digital Bank
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Digital Bank
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Headwind
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Headwind
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Competition
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Competition
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Kalshi
Chile
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chile
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$79
Trade this on Kalshi
Pharmacy
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pharmacy
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$668
Trade this on Kalshi
Payroll Loan
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Payroll Loan
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Automated / Automation
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Automated / Automation
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Amazon
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amazon
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Tailwind
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tailwind
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Authentic Brands
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Authentic Brands
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MercadoLibre, Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • AI / Artificial Intelligence
  • Advertising
  • Delivery

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will MercadoLibre say during their next earnings call?". AI / Artificial Intelligence leads at 90%. Next is Advertising at 77%. $3K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 2, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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