The Prediction Markets

What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in October 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

510 79.5%

Next is 495 at 70%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
510
79.5%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 88.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
510
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88.9¢
Sell Yes
70.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
495
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
495
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
555
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
555
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
540
51%
Polymarket 51%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
540
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
480
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
480
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
570
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
570
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
465
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
465
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
585
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
585
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
600
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
600
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$709
Trade this on Polymarket
450
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
450
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
615
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
615
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Polymarket
435
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
435
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$801
Trade this on Polymarket
630
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
630
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Polymarket
420
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
420
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket
405
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
405
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$748
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 510
  • 495
  • 555

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in October 2026?". 510 leads at 79.5%. Next is 495 at 70%. $37K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in October 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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