The Prediction Markets

What will Microsoft say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Jan 26, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic / Claude 90%

Next is GitHub (3+ times) at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Kalshi
GitHub (3+ times)
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
GitHub (3+ times)
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI (3+ times)
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI (3+ times)
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
AMD / Advanced Micro Devices
78.5%
Kalshi 78.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
AMD / Advanced Micro Devices
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Frontier
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frontier
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Maia
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maia
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$141
Trade this on Kalshi
Autopilot
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autopilot
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cobalt
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cobalt
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi
Helios
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Helios
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Memory (3+ times)
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Memory (3+ times)
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Activision / Blizzard
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Activision / Blizzard
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gaming
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gaming
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$332
Trade this on Kalshi
Sovereign Cloud
36.5%
Kalshi 36.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sovereign Cloud
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cybersecurity
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cybersecurity
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Microsoft Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic / Claude
  • GitHub (3+ times)
  • OpenAI (3+ times)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Microsoft say during their next earnings call?". Anthropic / Claude leads at 90%. Next is GitHub (3+ times) at 89%. $2K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 26, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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