Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
140 73.5%
Next is 150 at 50%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
14073.5%73.5%67¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 2 min ago80¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $125 (1.25x)14073.5%Polymarket 73.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
140
73.5%
73.5%
67¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
80¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
140
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 140
- Last price
- 73.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
15050%50%3¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 2 min ago97¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)15050%Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
150
50%
50%
3¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
97¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
150
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 150
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
8049.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 min ago99¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)8049.5%Polymarket 49.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
80
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
99¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
80
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 80
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
13049%49%3¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 2 min ago95¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $105 (1.05x)13049%Polymarket 49%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
130
49%
49%
3¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
95¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
130
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 130
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
23044.8%44.8%1¢ bid, 88.5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago88.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $113 (1.13x)23044.8%Polymarket 44.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 88.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
230
44.8%
44.8%
1¢ bid, 88.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
88.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $113 (1.13x)
230
44.8%
Polymarket 44.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 88.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $113 (1.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 230
- Last price
- 44.8%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 88.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $113 (1.13x)
- Volume
- $11
9043.5%43.5%1¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 2 min ago86¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $116 (1.16x)9043.5%Polymarket 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
90
43.5%
43.5%
1¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
86¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
90
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 90
- Last price
- 43.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
16037.5%37.5%31¢ bid, 44¢ askpolled, 2 min ago44¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $227 (2.27x)16037.5%Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
160
37.5%
37.5%
31¢ bid, 44¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
44¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $227 (2.27x)
160
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 160
- Last price
- 37.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 44¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $227 (2.27x)
- Volume
- $250
19034%34%1¢ bid, 67¢ askpolled, 2 min ago67¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $149 (1.49x)19034%Polymarket 34%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
190
34%
34%
1¢ bid, 67¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
67¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $149 (1.49x)
190
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 190
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 67¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $149 (1.49x)
22028%28%1¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 2 min ago55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)22028%Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
220
28%
28%
1¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
220
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 220
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
10024.5%24.5%— bid, 49¢ askpolled, 2 min ago49¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $204 (2.04x)10024.5%Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
100
24.5%
24.5%
— bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
49¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
100
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 100
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $110
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
17018.5%18.5%12¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 2 min ago25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)17018.5%Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
170
18.5%
18.5%
12¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
170
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 170
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $340
20016.5%16.5%1¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, 2 min ago32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)20016.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
200
16.5%
16.5%
1¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
200
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 200
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
18016%16%2¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 2 min ago30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)18016%Polymarket 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
180
16%
16%
2¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
180
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 180
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
12014.5%14.5%8¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 2 min ago21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)12014.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
120
14.5%
14.5%
8¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
120
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 120
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $200
11013.5%13.5%1¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 2 min ago26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)11013.5%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
110
13.5%
13.5%
1¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
110
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 110
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
21012%12%1¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 2 min ago23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)21012%Polymarket 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
210
12%
12%
1¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
210
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 210
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 140
- 150
- 80
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit in October 2026?". 140 leads at 73.5%. Next is 150 at 50%. $2K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
What will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit in October 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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