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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Tariff 90%
Next is Afford / Affordable / Affordability at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Tariff90%90%72¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, just now90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Tariff90%Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Tariff
90%
90%
72¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, just now
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Tariff
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tariff
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $218
Afford / Affordable / Affordability89%89%80¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, just now90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Afford / Affordable / Affordability89%Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
89%
89%
80¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, just now
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $56
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional88%88%79¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional88%Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
88%
88%
79¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 79¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $178
Democracy88%88%78¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Democracy88%Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Democracy
88%
88%
78¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Democracy
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Democracy
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $41
Trump (2+ times)87%87%83¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, just now87¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Trump (2+ times)87%Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Trump (2+ times)
87%
87%
83¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, just now
87¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Trump (2+ times)
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trump (2+ times)
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 83¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $226
AI / Artificial Intelligence86%86%75¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)AI / Artificial Intelligence86%Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
86%
86%
75¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $304
Healthcare86%86%75¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Healthcare86%Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Healthcare
86%
86%
75¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Healthcare
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Healthcare
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $44
ICE82%82%58¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, just now85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)ICE82%Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
ICE
82%
82%
58¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, just now
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
ICE
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ICE
- Last price
- 82%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $41
Inflation81%81%70¢ bid, 81¢ askpolled, just now81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)Inflation81%Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Inflation
81%
81%
70¢ bid, 81¢ ask
polled, just now
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Inflation
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Inflation
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $108
Iran / Iranian81%81%81¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, just now86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Iran / Iranian81%Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Iran / Iranian
81%
81%
81¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, just now
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Iran / Iranian
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iran / Iranian
- Last price
- 81%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $662
Show 15 more outcomesHide 15 outcomes
Immigration / Immigrant80%80%61¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, just now80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Immigration / Immigrant80%Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Immigration / Immigrant
80%
80%
61¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, just now
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Immigration / Immigrant
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, just nowBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Immigration / Immigrant
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $46
Tax78%78%78¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, just now88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Tax78%Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Tax
78%
78%
78¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, just now
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Tax
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tax
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $2K
Michelle75%75%62¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, just now75¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Michelle75%Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Michelle
75%
75%
62¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, just now
75¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Michelle
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michelle
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $368
Union / Unionize75%75%56¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, just now76¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $132 (1.32x)Union / Unionize75%Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Union / Unionize
75%
75%
56¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, just now
76¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Union / Unionize
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Union / Unionize
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 56¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $21
Billionaire68%68%66¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, just now78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Billionaire68%Kalshi 68%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Billionaire
68%
68%
66¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, just now
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Billionaire
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Billionaire
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 66¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $38
Social Security63%63%63¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, just now71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Social Security63%Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Social Security
63%
63%
63¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, just now
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Social Security
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Social Security
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $657
Biden48%48%37¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, just now48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Biden48%Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Biden
48%
48%
37¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, just now
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Biden
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Biden
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $124
Vance42%42%28¢ bid, 42¢ askpolled, just now42¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $238 (2.38x)Vance42%Kalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Vance
42%
42%
28¢ bid, 42¢ ask
polled, just now
42¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Vance
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vance
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 42¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $238 (2.38x)
- Volume
- $255
China / Chinese35%35%27¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, just now36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)China / Chinese35%Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
China / Chinese
35%
35%
27¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, just now
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
China / Chinese
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China / Chinese
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $147
Ballroom / Pool32%32%29¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Ballroom / Pool32%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ballroom / Pool
32%
32%
29¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Ballroom / Pool
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ballroom / Pool
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $449
Minimum Wage32%32%25¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Minimum Wage32%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Minimum Wage
32%
32%
25¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Minimum Wage
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minimum Wage
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $40
Chicago26%26%17¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, just now37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Chicago26%Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Chicago
26%
26%
17¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, just now
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Chicago
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Chicago
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $42
Abortion21%21%21¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, just now31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Abortion21%Kalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Abortion
21%
21%
21¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, just now
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Abortion
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abortion
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $44
25017%17%8¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)25017%Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
250
17%
17%
8¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
250
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 250
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1
Event does not qualify3%3%2¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, just now15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Event does not qualify3%Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Event does not qualify
3%
3%
2¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, just now
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Event does not qualify
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Event does not qualify
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $221
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Tariff
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Obama say during his midterm rally in Ohio?". Tariff leads at 90%. Next is Afford / Affordable / Affordability at 89%. $6K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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