The Prediction Markets

What will Obama say during his MS NOW interview?

Closed
Jul 4, 2026
Traded
$54K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Trump
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hope
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hope
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michelle
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michelle
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$860
Trade this on Kalshi
Chicago
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chicago
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Election / Midterm
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election / Midterm
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Southside
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Southside
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare / Obamacare
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare / Obamacare
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Basketball
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Basketball
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$763
Trade this on Kalshi
Biden
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
World Cup
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
World Cup
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ballroom / Pool
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ballroom / Pool
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3042 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$917
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Trump
  • Hope
  • Michelle

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will Obama say during his MS NOW interview?". Trump last traded at 98%. Next is Hope at 94%. $54K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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