The Prediction Markets

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$1.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jun 1, 2027 50%

Next is Before May 1, 2027 at 48%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
1T
25.6%
Polymarket 25.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $364 (3.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
1T
Last price
25.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27.5¢
Sell Yes
23.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$364 (3.64x)
Volume
$89K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.5T–$1.75T
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $431 (4.31x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5T–$1.75T
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23.2¢
Sell Yes
19.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$431 (4.31x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.75T–$2.0T
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.75T–$2.0T
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.25T–$1.5T
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.25T–$1.5T
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
11.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Feb 1, 2027
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0T–$2.25T
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $813 (8.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0T–$2.25T
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.3¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$813 (8.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
1.0T–$1.25T
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0T–$1.25T
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.25T–$2.5T
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.25T–$2.5T
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jan 1, 2027
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$150K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$98K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5T+
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5T+
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$87K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Nov 1, 2026
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Nov 1, 2026
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jun 1, 2027
  • Before May 1, 2027
  • Before Apr 1, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jun 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?". Before Jun 1, 2027 leads at 50%. Next is Before May 1, 2027 at 48%. $1.4M has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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