The Prediction Markets

What will Palmer Luckey say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

China / Chinese 89%

Next is Autonomous / Autonomy at 78%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
China / Chinese
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Autonomous / Autonomy
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Autonomous / Autonomy
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Drone
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drone
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Manufacture / Manufacturing
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manufacture / Manufacturing
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Kalshi
Submarine
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Submarine
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Kalshi
Meridian
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meridian
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine / Ukrainian
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Oculus
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oculus
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Iran / Iranian
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Taiwan
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Arsenal
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arsenal
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Lattice
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lattice
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$9
Trade this on Kalshi
Pentagon
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pentagon
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
IPO
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
IPO
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • China / Chinese
  • Autonomous / Autonomy
  • Drone

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Palmer Luckey say during NYT DealBook Summit?". China / Chinese leads at 89%. Next is Autonomous / Autonomy at 78%. $3K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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