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What the markets expect
Juventus 28.4%
Next is Paris Saint-Germain at 28.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Juventus28.4%37%28.4% fair2¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Juventus28.4%Polymarket 37%(28.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Juventus
28.4%
37%
28.4% fair
2¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Juventus
28.4%
Polymarket 37%(28.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Juventus
- Last price
- 37%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $59
Paris Saint-Germain28.4%37%28.4% fair2¢ bid, 72¢ askpolled, 1 min ago72¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Paris Saint-Germain28.4%Polymarket 37%(28.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Paris Saint-Germain
28.4%
37%
28.4% fair
2¢ bid, 72¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
72¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Paris Saint-Germain
28.4%
Polymarket 37%(28.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Last price
- 37%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $110
Barcelona9.7%12.7%9.7% fair12.3¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Barcelona9.7%Polymarket 12.7%(9.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Barcelona
9.7%
12.7%
9.7% fair
12.3¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Barcelona
9.7%
Polymarket 12.7%(9.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Barcelona
- Last price
- 12.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 12.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $215
Italy5.4%7%5.4% fair1¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Italy5.4%Polymarket 7%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Italy
5.4%
7%
5.4% fair
1¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Italy
5.4%
Polymarket 7%(5.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $596
Manchester City5.2%6.8%5.2% fair5.1¢ bid, 8.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)Manchester City5.2%Polymarket 6.8%(5.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Manchester City
5.2%
6.8%
5.2% fair
5.1¢ bid, 8.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Manchester City
5.2%
Polymarket 6.8%(5.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Manchester City
- Last price
- 6.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,190 (11.9x)
- Volume
- $56
Bayern Munich4.8%6.3%4.8% fair5.5¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)Bayern Munich4.8%Polymarket 6.3%(4.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Bayern Munich
4.8%
6.3%
4.8% fair
5.5¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Bayern Munich
4.8%
Polymarket 6.3%(4.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bayern Munich
- Last price
- 6.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $189
Real Madrid4.3%5.7%4.3% fair0.4¢ bid, 10.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $917 (9.17x)Real Madrid4.3%Polymarket 5.7%(4.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Real Madrid
4.3%
5.7%
4.3% fair
0.4¢ bid, 10.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Real Madrid
4.3%
Polymarket 5.7%(4.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Real Madrid
- Last price
- 5.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $917 (9.17x)
- Volume
- $75
Portugal3.4%4.5%3.5% fair0.2¢ bid, 8.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)Portugal3.4%Polymarket 4.5%(3.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Portugal
3.4%
4.5%
3.5% fair
0.2¢ bid, 8.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Portugal
3.4%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 4.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,136 (11.4x)
- Volume
- $48
England3.1%4.1%3.1% fair0.2¢ bid, 7.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)England3.1%Polymarket 4.1%(3.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
England
3.1%
4.1%
3.1% fair
0.2¢ bid, 7.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
England
3.1%
Polymarket 4.1%(3.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- England
- Last price
- 4.1%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,266 (12.7x)
- Volume
- $38
Argentina3%3.9%3% fair3.8¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)Argentina3%Polymarket 3.9%(3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Argentina
3%
3.9%
3% fair
3.8¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Argentina
3%
Polymarket 3.9%(3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Argentina
- Last price
- 3.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $252
Brazil3%3.9%3% fair0.7¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Brazil3%Polymarket 3.9%(3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Brazil
3%
3.9%
3% fair
0.7¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Brazil
3%
Polymarket 3.9%(3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Brazil
- Last price
- 3.9%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $808
Spain1.3%1.7%0.2¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)Spain1.3%Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Spain
1.3%
1.7%
0.2¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Spain
1.3%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Spain
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $43
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Juventus
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Barcelona
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Pep Guardiola's next job be?". Juventus leads at 28.4%. Next is Paris Saint-Germain at 28.4%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2028.
This market will resolve according to the next club or national team for which Pep Guardiola is officially appointed as manager or head coach, following his departure from Manchester City at the end of the 2025-26 season. Only an appointment as manager or head coach of a senior men's club or national team counts. Non-coaching roles do not count, including his current role as a Global Ambassador for City Football Group, and any sporting director, technical director, advisory, ambassadorial or ownership position. An official announcement by the club or national association before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. If Pep Guardiola has not been officially appointed as a manager or head coach by July 1, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the appointing club or national association. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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