The Prediction Markets

What will Pete Buttigieg say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki?

Closes
Nov 24, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Trump 87%

Next is Republican at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Trump
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, just nowBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$237
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm / Election
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm / Election
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$238
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, just nowBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
2028 / Campaign
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, just nowBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
2028 / Campaign
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Corrupt / Corruption
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
AI / Artificial Intelligence
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Democracy
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democracy
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Billionaire
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billionaire
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Trump
  • Republican
  • Afford / Affordable / Affordability

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Pete Buttigieg say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki?". Trump leads at 87%. Next is Republican at 85%. $2K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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