The Prediction Markets

What will Pete Hegseth say during his press briefing?

Closes
Nov 24, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Nuclear 86%

Next is Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment at 83%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Nuclear
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$594
Trade this on Kalshi
Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrat
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Hormuz
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hormuz
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran (3+ times)
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, just nowBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran (3+ times)
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Venezuela / Venezuelan
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela / Venezuelan
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (5+ times)
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, just nowBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi
Constitution / Constitutional
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, just nowBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Constitution / Constitutional
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Maduro
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maduro
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel / Israeli
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel / Israeli
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
America First
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake News
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fake News
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Civilian
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Civilian
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
War Powers
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
War Powers
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Drone
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, just nowBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drone
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine / Ukrainian
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine / Ukrainian
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Yemen
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yemen
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nuclear
  • Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment
  • Democrat

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Pete Hegseth say during his press briefing?". Nuclear leads at 86%. Next is Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment at 83%. $4K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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