The Prediction Markets

What will Progressive say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Nov 17, 2026, in 25 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

M&A / Acquisition 90%

Next is Bundle / Bundling at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
M&A / Acquisition
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
M&A / Acquisition
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bundle / Bundling
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bundle / Bundling
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Catastrophe
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Catastrophe
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Homeowner
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Homeowner
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$114
Trade this on Kalshi
Snapshot
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Snapshot
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Kalshi
Reinsurance
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reinsurance
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Buyback / Buy Back
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Buyback / Buy Back
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Open the House
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Open the House
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hippo
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hippo
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rosella
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rosella
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Progressive Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • M&A / Acquisition
  • Bundle / Bundling
  • AI / Artificial Intelligence

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Progressive say during their next earnings call?". M&A / Acquisition leads at 90%. Next is Bundle / Bundling at 88%. $7K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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