The Prediction Markets

What will Sam Altman say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 40 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
9 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Safe / Safer / Safety 81%

Next is Astra at 67%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 9 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Safe / Safer / Safety
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Safe / Safer / Safety
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Astra
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Astra
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Compute
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Compute
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Regulation / Regulate / Regulatory
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Regulation / Regulate / Regulatory
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AGI
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
AGI
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Hugging Face
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hugging Face
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
Privacy
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Privacy
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Valuation / IPO
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Valuation / IPO
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Open Source
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Open Source
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon / Grok
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elon / Grok
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
IP / Intellectual Property
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
IP / Intellectual Property
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Google / Gemini
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Google / Gemini
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 9 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 9 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Safe / Safer / Safety
  • Astra
  • Compute

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Sam Altman say during NYT DealBook Summit?". Safe / Safer / Safety leads at 81%. Next is Astra at 67%. $1K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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