The Prediction Markets

What will Satya Nadella say during NYT DealBook Summit?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Agent / Agentic 66%

Next is Copilot at 65.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Agent / Agentic
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agent / Agentic
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$891
Trade this on Kalshi
Copilot
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Copilot
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Token
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Token
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Security
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Security
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Azure
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Azure
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$88
Trade this on Kalshi
Cloud
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cloud
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Compute
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Compute
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
GitHub
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
GitHub
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
AGI
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
AGI
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Cowork
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cowork
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Containment
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Containment
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Google / Gemini
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Google / Gemini
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
ROI / Return On Investment
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
ROI / Return On Investment
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Nuclear
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Agent / Agentic
  • Copilot
  • Token

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Satya Nadella say during NYT DealBook Summit?". Agent / Agentic leads at 66%. Next is Copilot at 65.5%. $1K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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