The Prediction Markets

What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX Opening Keynote?

Closes
Nov 24, 2026, in 32 days
Traded
$9K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Photoshop 71%

Next is Generative AI / Gen AI at 62%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Photoshop
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Photoshop
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Generative AI / Gen AI
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Generative AI / Gen AI
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Acrobat
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Acrobat
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Premiere
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Premiere
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Kalshi
Adobe Express
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adobe Express
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Firefly Video
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Firefly Video
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
GenStudio
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
GenStudio
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI / ChatGPT
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Content Credential
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Content Credential
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Topaz Labs
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Topaz Labs
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Generative Fill
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Generative Fill
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
NVIDIA
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
NVIDIA
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
3D
18.5%
Kalshi 18.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
3D
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
YouTube
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
YouTube
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Copyright
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Copyright
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Disney
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disney
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Adobe Inc. Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Photoshop
  • Generative AI / Gen AI
  • Acrobat

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Shantanu Narayen say during Adobe MAX Opening Keynote?". Photoshop leads at 71%. Next is Generative AI / Gen AI at 62%. $9K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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