The Prediction Markets

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?

Closes
Nov 18, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Trump 80%

Next is Healthcare at 70%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Trump
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Kalshi
Healthcare
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Healthcare
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republican
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$249
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Diesel
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Diesel
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Economy / Economic
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Economy / Economic
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation / Grocery
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation / Grocery
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Corrupt / Corruption
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Corrupt / Corruption
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Billionaire
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billionaire
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Utility / Energy Prices
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utility / Energy Prices
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Abortion
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abortion
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Insulin
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Insulin
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Trump
  • Healthcare
  • Tariff

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?". Trump leads at 80%. Next is Healthcare at 70%. $2K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 18, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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