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Best ask
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What the markets expect
54 73%
Next is 52 at 30%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
5473%73%70¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 3 h ago76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)5473%Polymarket 73%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
54
73%
73%
70¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
54
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 54
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $26K
5230%30%29¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 3 h ago31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)5230%Polymarket 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
52
30%
30%
29¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
52
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 52
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $19K
6011.5%11.5%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 3 h ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)6011.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
60
11.5%
11.5%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
60
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 60
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $5K
5010.3%10.3%6.4¢ bid, 14.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago14.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $704 (7.04x)5010.3%Polymarket 10.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
50
10.3%
10.3%
6.4¢ bid, 14.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
14.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $704 (7.04x)
50
10.3%
Polymarket 10.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 50
- Last price
- 10.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $704 (7.04x)
- Volume
- $17K
623.3%3.3%2.3¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)623.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
62
3.3%
3.3%
2.3¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
62
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 62
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $17K
482.5%2.5%0.6¢ bid, 4.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)482.5%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
48
2.5%
2.5%
0.6¢ bid, 4.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
48
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 48
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,273 (22.7x)
- Volume
- $11K
462.3%2.3%0.5¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)462.3%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
46
2.3%
2.3%
0.5¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
46
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 46
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
441.8%1.8%0.1¢ bid, 3.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago3.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)441.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
44
1.8%
1.8%
0.1¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
3.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
44
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 44
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $122
641.6%1.6%0.9¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago2.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)641.6%Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
64
1.6%
1.6%
0.9¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
2.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
64
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 64
- Last price
- 1.6%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $11K
681.3%1.3%1¢ bid, 1.5¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)681.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
68
1.3%
1.3%
1¢ bid, 1.5¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
68
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 68
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $6,667 (66.7x)
- Volume
- $10K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
661.2%1.2%0.3¢ bid, 2.1¢ askpolled, 3 h ago2.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)661.2%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
66
1.2%
1.2%
0.3¢ bid, 2.1¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
2.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
66
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 66
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,762 (47.6x)
- Volume
- $12K
720.8%0.8%0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)720.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
72
0.8%
0.8%
0.2¢ bid, 1.4¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
72
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 72
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $7,143 (71.4x)
- Volume
- $11K
760.8%0.8%0.4¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 3 h ago1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)760.8%Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
76
0.8%
0.8%
0.4¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
76
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 76
- Last price
- 0.8%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
700.7%0.7%0.4¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)700.7%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
70
0.7%
0.7%
0.4¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
70
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 70
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $9K
740.7%0.7%0.4¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 3 h ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)740.7%Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
74
0.7%
0.7%
0.4¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 3 h ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
74
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 74
- Last price
- 0.7%
- As of
- Polled 3 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 54
- 52
- 60
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?". 54 leads at 73%. Next is 52 at 30%. $228K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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