The Prediction Markets

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$429K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

7,400 66.5%

Next is 8,000 at 46.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
7,400
66.5%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
7,400
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$846
Trade this on Polymarket
8,000
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
8,000
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$908
Trade this on Polymarket
7,000
33%
Polymarket 33%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
7,000
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
7,200
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
7,200
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
8,200
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
8,200
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
6,200
9.3%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
6,200
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$74K
Trade this on Polymarket
6,000
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
6,000
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
8,600
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
8,600
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,800
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,800
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
5,200
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
5,200
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
9,000
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
9,000
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Polymarket
9,300
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
9,300
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
4,500
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
4,500
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket
10,000
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
10,000
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: finance.yahoo.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 7,400
  • 8,000
  • 7,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?". 7,400 leads at 66.5%. Next is 8,000 at 46.5%. $429K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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