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Trading ended on Jun 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 160 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
73069.5%69.5%69¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago70¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $143 (1.43x)73069.5%Polymarket 69.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
730
69.5%
69.5%
69¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
70¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
730
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 730
- Last price
- 69.5%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 69¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
- Volume
- $21K
72050.5%50.5%50¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago51¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $196 (1.96x)72050.5%Polymarket 50.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
720
50.5%
50.5%
50¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
51¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
720
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 720
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $30K
75047.5%47.5%47¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago48¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $208 (2.08x)75047.5%Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
750
47.5%
47.5%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
48¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
750
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 750
- Last price
- 47.5%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $71K
76031.8%31.8%31.7¢ bid, 31.8¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago31.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $314 (3.14x)76031.8%Polymarket 31.8%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 31.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $314 (3.14x)
760
31.8%
31.8%
31.7¢ bid, 31.8¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
31.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $314 (3.14x)
760
31.8%
Polymarket 31.8%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 31.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $314 (3.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 760
- Last price
- 31.8%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 31.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 31.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $314 (3.14x)
- Volume
- $43K
71025.5%25.5%25¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)71025.5%Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
710
25.5%
25.5%
25¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
710
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 710
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $59K
70019.5%19.5%19¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)70019.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
700
19.5%
19.5%
19¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
700
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 700
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $55K
69015%15%14¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)69015%Polymarket 15%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
690
15%
15%
14¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
690
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 690
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $22K
7708.8%8.8%8.5¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)7708.8%Polymarket 8.8%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
770
8.8%
8.8%
8.5¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
770
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 770
- Last price
- 8.8%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $19K
6807.5%7.5%7¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)6807.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
680
7.5%
7.5%
7¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
680
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 680
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $12K
7804.6%4.6%3.4¢ bid, 5.8¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago5.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)7804.6%Polymarket 4.6%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
780
4.6%
4.6%
3.4¢ bid, 5.8¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
5.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
780
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 780
- Last price
- 4.6%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,724 (17.2x)
- Volume
- $13K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
8002.6%2.6%0.3¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)8002.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
800
2.6%
2.6%
0.3¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
800
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $170
6602%2%1.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago2.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)6602%Polymarket 2%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
660
2%
2%
1.5¢ bid, 2.5¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
2.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
660
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 660
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,000 (40.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
7902%2%0.2¢ bid, 3.8¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago3.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)7902%Polymarket 2%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
790
2%
2%
0.2¢ bid, 3.8¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
3.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
790
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 790
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,632 (26.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
6702%2%1.5¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)6702%Polymarket 2%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
670
2%
2%
1.5¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
670
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 670
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $9K
6501.9%1.9%1.1¢ bid, 2.6¢ askpolled, 3856 h ago2.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)6501.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
650
1.9%
1.9%
1.1¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask
polled, 3856 h ago
2.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
650
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 3856 h agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 650
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled 160 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,846 (38.5x)
- Volume
- $13K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 730
- 720
- 750
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?". 730 last traded at 69.5%. Next is 720 at 50.5%. $487K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 1, 2026.
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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