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Best ask
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What the markets expect
760 93.3%
Next is 770 at 57%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
76093.3%93.3%89.8¢ bid, 96.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago96.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)76093.3%Polymarket 93.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
760
93.3%
93.3%
89.8¢ bid, 96.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
96.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
760
93.3%
Polymarket 93.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 760
- Last price
- 93.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 89.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $15K
77057%57%54¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 1 min ago60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)77057%Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
770
57%
57%
54¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
60¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
770
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 770
- Last price
- 57%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
75053.5%53.5%50¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 1 min ago57¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $175 (1.75x)75053.5%Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
750
53.5%
53.5%
50¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
57¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
750
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 750
- Last price
- 53.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $28K
74026%26%23¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)74026%Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
740
26%
26%
23¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
740
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 740
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $21K
78025.9%25.9%22¢ bid, 29.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago29.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $337 (3.37x)78025.9%Polymarket 25.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $337 (3.37x)
780
25.9%
25.9%
22¢ bid, 29.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
29.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $337 (3.37x)
780
25.9%
Polymarket 25.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $337 (3.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 780
- Last price
- 25.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 29.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $337 (3.37x)
- Volume
- $8K
73012%12%11¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)73012%Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
730
12%
12%
11¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
730
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 730
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $14K
7906%6%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)7906%Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
790
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
790
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 790
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $23K
7204.9%4.9%2.7¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)7204.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
720
4.9%
4.9%
2.7¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
720
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 720
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $10K
7103.9%3.9%1¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)7103.9%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
710
3.9%
3.9%
1¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
710
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 710
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $12K
8003.9%3.9%1¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)8003.9%Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
800
3.9%
3.9%
1¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
800
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 800
- Last price
- 3.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $19K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
8103.7%3.7%1¢ bid, 6.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)8103.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
810
3.7%
3.7%
1¢ bid, 6.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
810
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 810
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,563 (15.6x)
- Volume
- $12K
8403.3%3.3%0.2¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)8403.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
840
3.3%
3.3%
0.2¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
840
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 840
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $250
8202.7%2.7%0.5¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)8202.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
820
2.7%
2.7%
0.5¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
820
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 820
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $5K
8301.3%1.3%0.2¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)8301.3%Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
830
1.3%
1.3%
0.2¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
830
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 830
- Last price
- 1.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $606
7000.9%0.9%0.8¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)7000.9%Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
700
0.9%
0.9%
0.8¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
700
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 700
- Last price
- 0.9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 760
- 770
- 750
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?". 760 leads at 93.3%. Next is 770 at 57%. $186K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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