What are the odds of 720 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

720 last traded at 66.5% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 725 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

725 last traded at 7.2% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 705 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

705 last traded at 6.4% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 700 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

700 last traded at 5.9% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 695 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

695 last traded at 4.3% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 730 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

730 last traded at 3% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 735 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

735 last traded at 2.5% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 680 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

680 last traded at 1.5% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 740 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

740 last traded at 1.1% before the market closed.

What are the odds of 690 in What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026??

690 last traded at 1% before the market closed.

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026?

FinalKickoff Sun, Apr 26, 9:00 PM UTC

Traded: $23K
Venues: Polymarket

This market has closed

Trading ended on May 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 176 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Fair chance

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

720

66.5%

78.5%

66.6% fair

77¢ bid, 80¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

80¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $125 (1.25x)

720

66.5%

Polymarket 78.5%(66.6% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)

Polymarket

Contract: 720
Last price: 78.5%
Fair, margin removed: 66.6%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 80¢
Sell Yes: 77¢
$100 on Yes pays: $125 (1.25x)
Volume: $3K

Trade this on Polymarket

725

7.2%

8.5%

7.2% fair

8¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

725

7.2%

Polymarket 8.5%(7.2% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: 725
Last price: 8.5%
Fair, margin removed: 7.2%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $973

Trade this on Polymarket

705

6.4%

7.5%

6.4% fair

7¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

705

6.4%

Polymarket 7.5%(6.4% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: 705
Last price: 7.5%
Fair, margin removed: 6.4%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $7K

Trade this on Polymarket

700

5.9%

5.9% fair

6¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

700

5.9%

Polymarket 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: 700
Last price: 7%
Fair, margin removed: 5.9%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

695

4.3%

5.1%

4.3% fair

3.1¢ bid, 7¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

695

4.3%

Polymarket 5.1%(4.3% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: 695
Last price: 5.1%
Fair, margin removed: 4.3%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 7¢
Sell Yes: 3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,429 (14.3x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

730

3.6%

3% fair

2.1¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

730

Polymarket 3.6%(3% fair)polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: 730
Last price: 3.6%
Fair, margin removed: 3%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $590

Trade this on Polymarket

735

2.5%

0.9¢ bid, 5¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

5¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

735

2.5%

Polymarket 3%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: 735
Last price: 3%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 5¢
Sell Yes: 0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,000 (20.0x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

680

1.5%

1.8%

0.3¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

3.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)

680

1.5%

Polymarket 1.8%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: 680
Last price: 1.8%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 3.2¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,125 (31.3x)
Volume: $716

Trade this on Polymarket

740

1.1%

1.3%

0.6¢ bid, 2¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

740

1.1%

Polymarket 1.3%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: 740
Last price: 1.3%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 2¢
Sell Yes: 0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $5,000 (50.0x)
Volume: $757

Trade this on Polymarket

690

1.2%

0.7¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

1.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)

690

Polymarket 1.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: 690
Last price: 1.2%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 1.6¢
Sell Yes: 0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays: $6,250 (62.5x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

685

0.5%

0.6%

0.3¢ bid, 0.8¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

0.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $12,500 (125x)

685

0.5%

Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)

Polymarket

Contract: 685
Last price: 0.6%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.8¢
Sell Yes: 0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $12,500 (125x)
Volume: $2K

Trade this on Polymarket

745

0.1%

0.2%

— bid, 0.3¢ ask

polled, 4240 h ago

0.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $33,333 (333x)

745

0.1%

Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4240 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)

Polymarket

Contract: 745
Last price: 0.2%
As of: Polled 176 d ago
Buy Yes: 0.3¢
Sell Yes: —
$100 on Yes pays: $33,333 (333x)
Volume: $1K

Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

—

Spread

—

Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026?". 720 last traded at 66.5%. Next is 725 at 7.2%. $23K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 1, 2026.

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of April 27 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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This market has closed

Odds by venue

Who resolves this market

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

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