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Best ask
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What the markets expect
150 87%
Next is 155 at 58%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
15087%87%84¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 60s ago90¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $111 (1.11x)15087%Polymarket 87%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
150
87%
87%
84¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
90¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
150
87%
Polymarket 87%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 150
- Last price
- 87%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
15558%58%55¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 60s ago61¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $164 (1.64x)15558%Polymarket 58%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
155
58%
58%
55¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
61¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
155
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 155
- Last price
- 58%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
14050%50%45¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 60s ago55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)14050%Polymarket 50%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
140
50%
50%
45¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
140
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 140
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 45¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $830
13540.5%40.5%26¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 60s ago55¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $182 (1.82x)13540.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
135
40.5%
40.5%
26¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
55¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
135
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 135
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $1K
16035.5%35.5%32¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 60s ago39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)16035.5%Polymarket 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
160
35.5%
35.5%
32¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
160
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 160
- Last price
- 35.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
16521%21%18¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 60s ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)16521%Polymarket 21%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
165
21%
21%
18¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
165
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 165
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
18019%19%2¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 60s ago36¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $278 (2.78x)18019%Polymarket 19%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
180
19%
19%
2¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
36¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
180
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 180
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $531
13017.4%17.4%12.1¢ bid, 22.6¢ askpolled, 60s ago22.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $442 (4.42x)13017.4%Polymarket 17.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 22.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $442 (4.42x)
130
17.4%
17.4%
12.1¢ bid, 22.6¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
22.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $442 (4.42x)
130
17.4%
Polymarket 17.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 22.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $442 (4.42x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 130
- Last price
- 17.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 12.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $442 (4.42x)
- Volume
- $1K
18516.5%16.5%1.1¢ bid, 31.8¢ askpolled, 60s ago31.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $314 (3.14x)18516.5%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 31.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $314 (3.14x)
185
16.5%
16.5%
1.1¢ bid, 31.8¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
31.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $314 (3.14x)
185
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 31.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $314 (3.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 185
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $314 (3.14x)
19015%15%1¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 60s ago29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)19015%Polymarket 15%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
190
15%
15%
1¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
190
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 190
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $5
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
17012.5%12.5%9¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 60s ago16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)17012.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
170
12.5%
12.5%
9¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
170
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 170
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $650
12510.2%10.2%5¢ bid, 15.3¢ askpolled, 60s ago15.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $654 (6.54x)12510.2%Polymarket 10.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
125
10.2%
10.2%
5¢ bid, 15.3¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
15.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $654 (6.54x)
125
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 15.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $654 (6.54x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 125
- Last price
- 10.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $654 (6.54x)
- Volume
- $755
1159.7%9.7%1¢ bid, 18.4¢ askpolled, 60s ago18.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $543 (5.43x)1159.7%Polymarket 9.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 18.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $543 (5.43x)
115
9.7%
9.7%
1¢ bid, 18.4¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
18.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $543 (5.43x)
115
9.7%
Polymarket 9.7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 18.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $543 (5.43x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 115
- Last price
- 9.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $543 (5.43x)
- Volume
- $212
1757.5%7.5%4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 60s ago11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)1757.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
175
7.5%
7.5%
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
175
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 175
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $88
1207.1%7.1%1.9¢ bid, 12.2¢ askpolled, 60s ago12.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $820 (8.20x)1207.1%Polymarket 7.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
120
7.1%
7.1%
1.9¢ bid, 12.2¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
12.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $820 (8.20x)
120
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 12.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $820 (8.20x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 120
- Last price
- 7.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $820 (8.20x)
- Volume
- $783
1956.4%6.4%1¢ bid, 11.8¢ askpolled, 60s ago11.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $847 (8.47x)1956.4%Polymarket 6.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
195
6.4%
6.4%
1¢ bid, 11.8¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
11.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $847 (8.47x)
195
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 195
- Last price
- 6.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $847 (8.47x)
- Volume
- $5K
2006.1%6.1%0.3¢ bid, 11.8¢ askpolled, 60s ago11.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $847 (8.47x)2006.1%Polymarket 6.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
200
6.1%
6.1%
0.3¢ bid, 11.8¢ ask
polled, 60s ago
11.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $847 (8.47x)
200
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 200
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $847 (8.47x)
- Volume
- $488
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 150
- 155
- 140
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in October 2026?". 150 leads at 87%. Next is 155 at 58%. $18K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.
What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in October 2026?
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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