The Prediction Markets

What will Target say during their next earnings call?

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 27 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Target Plus 88%

Next is Back to School at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Target Plus
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Target Plus
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Back to School
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Back to School
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Beauty (3+ times)
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beauty (3+ times)
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
Circle 360
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Circle 360
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Revenue
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Revenue
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Roundel
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roundel
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
Fun 101
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fun 101
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Remodel (3+ times)
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Remodel (3+ times)
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi
Agentic
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Agentic
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
OpenAI / Open AI
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI / Open AI
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$155
Trade this on Kalshi
PetaJane / Peta Jane
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
PetaJane / Peta Jane
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$369
Trade this on Kalshi
Competition
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Competition
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
SNAP / Food Stamp
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
SNAP / Food Stamp
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Target Corporation Investor Events

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Target Plus
  • Back to School
  • Beauty (3+ times)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Target say during their next earnings call?". Target Plus leads at 88%. Next is Back to School at 86%. $1K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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