The Prediction Markets

What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in October 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

390 53%

Next is 360 at 51.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
390
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
390
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
360
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
360
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
420
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
420
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
405
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
405
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
345
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
345
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
315
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
315
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
330
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
330
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
435
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
435
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
465
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
465
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$348
Trade this on Polymarket
450
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
450
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 4 more outcomes
300
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
300
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
285
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
285
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
270
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
270
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
480
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
480
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$975
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: pythdata.app

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 390
  • 360
  • 420

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in October 2026?". 390 leads at 53%. Next is 360 at 51.5%. $79K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in October 2026?

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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