Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
This market has closed
Trading ended on Jul 4, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Header92%92%90¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Header92%Kalshi 92%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Header
92%
92%
90¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Header
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Header
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $387
Visa90%90%90¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Visa90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Visa
90%
90%
90¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Visa
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Visa
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $2K
Captain88%88%87¢ bid, 88¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago88¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $114 (1.14x)Captain88%Kalshi 88%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Captain
88%
88%
87¢ bid, 88¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
88¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Captain
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Captain
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 88¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $114 (1.14x)
- Volume
- $270
Comeback / Come Back85%85%81¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Comeback / Come Back85%Kalshi 85%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Comeback / Come Back
85%
85%
81¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Comeback / Come Back
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Comeback / Come Back
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $190
Turf / Pitch85%85%85¢ bid, 86¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago86¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $116 (1.16x)Turf / Pitch85%Kalshi 85%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Turf / Pitch
85%
85%
85¢ bid, 86¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
86¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Turf / Pitch
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Turf / Pitch
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 86¢
- Sell Yes
- 85¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $116 (1.16x)
- Volume
- $738
Qatar70%70%70¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago71¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Qatar70%Kalshi 70%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Qatar
70%
70%
70¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
71¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Qatar
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Qatar
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $705
Champion66%66%67¢ bid, 68¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago68¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $147 (1.47x)Champion66%Kalshi 66%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Champion
66%
66%
67¢ bid, 68¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
68¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Champion
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Champion
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 68¢
- Sell Yes
- 67¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $147 (1.47x)
- Volume
- $157
History66%66%71¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)History66%Kalshi 66%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
History
66%
66%
71¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
History
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- History
- Last price
- 66%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $291
Record64%64%63¢ bid, 65¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago65¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $154 (1.54x)Record64%Kalshi 64%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Record
64%
64%
63¢ bid, 65¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
65¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Record
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Record
- Last price
- 64%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 65¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $154 (1.54x)
- Volume
- $54
Assist63%63%62¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago63¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $159 (1.59x)Assist63%Kalshi 63%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Assist
63%
63%
62¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
63¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Assist
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Assist
- Last price
- 63%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 62¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $169
Show 18 more outcomesHide 18 outcomes
Messi59%59%48¢ bid, 57¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago57¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $175 (1.75x)Messi59%Kalshi 59%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Messi
59%
59%
48¢ bid, 57¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
57¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Messi
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Messi
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $242
Momentum56%56%58¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Momentum56%Kalshi 56%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Momentum
56%
56%
58¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Momentum
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Momentum
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $140
Hattrick / Hat Trick52%52%51¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Hattrick / Hat Trick52%Kalshi 52%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Hattrick / Hat Trick
52%
52%
51¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Hattrick / Hat Trick
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hattrick / Hat Trick
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 51¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $119
Handball49%49%48¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Handball49%Kalshi 49%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Handball
49%
49%
48¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Handball
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Handball
- Last price
- 49%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $537
Soccer43%43%40¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Soccer43%Kalshi 43%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Soccer
43%
43%
40¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Soccer
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Soccer
- Last price
- 43%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 40¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $126
Own Goal39%39%31¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Own Goal39%Kalshi 39%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Own Goal
39%
39%
31¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Own Goal
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Own Goal
- Last price
- 39%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
- Volume
- $136
Crossbar34%34%32¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Crossbar34%Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Crossbar
34%
34%
32¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Crossbar
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Crossbar
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $193
Red Card34%34%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Red Card34%Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Red Card
34%
34%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Red Card
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Red Card
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $775
Ronaldo34%34%32¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago35¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Ronaldo34%Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Ronaldo
34%
34%
32¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
35¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Ronaldo
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ronaldo
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $58
Gianni / Infantino28%28%21¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Gianni / Infantino28%Kalshi 28%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Gianni / Infantino
28%
28%
21¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Gianni / Infantino
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gianni / Infantino
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $98
Penalty Shootout24%24%20¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Penalty Shootout24%Kalshi 24%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Penalty Shootout
24%
24%
20¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Penalty Shootout
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Penalty Shootout
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $42
What a Save23%23%21¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)What a Save23%Kalshi 23%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
What a Save
23%
23%
21¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
What a Save
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- What a Save
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $2K
Shutout22%22%15¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Shutout22%Kalshi 22%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Shutout
22%
22%
15¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Shutout
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shutout
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $154
Nutmeg / Meg16%16%15¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Nutmeg / Meg16%Kalshi 16%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Nutmeg / Meg
16%
16%
15¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Nutmeg / Meg
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nutmeg / Meg
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $138
Powerade7%7%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Powerade7%Kalshi 7%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Powerade
7%
7%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Powerade
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Powerade
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $91
Trump6%6%6¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Trump6%Kalshi 6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Trump
6%
6%
6¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Trump
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trump
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $385
Levi's Stadium4%4%3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Levi's Stadium4%Kalshi 4%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Levi's Stadium
4%
4%
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Levi's Stadium
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Levi's Stadium
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $9K
Event does not qualify1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3031 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Event does not qualify1%Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Event does not qualify
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3031 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Event does not qualify
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3031 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Event does not qualify
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 126 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Header
- Visa
- Captain
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "What will the announcers say during Turkiye vs Paraguay". Header last traded at 92%. Next is Visa at 90%. $22K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 4, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More other markets
See all other markets- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?December 318.5%$76.6M traded
- Which party will win the U.S. House?Democratic Party91.4%$67.6M traded
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes1.3%$66.7M traded
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?Nithya Raman55%$42.6M traded
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 2498%$38.7M traded
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Before Jan 20, 202923%$37.1M traded