The Prediction Markets

What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
58 min ago
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What the markets expect

10 Gwei 41.8%

Next is 5 Gwei at 20.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

10 Gwei 41.8%5 Gwei 20.9%20 Gwei 13.6%25 Gwei 9.3%15 Gwei 7.9%40 Gwei 6.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 58 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
10 Gwei
41.8%
Polymarket 48%(41.8% fair)polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
10 Gwei
Last price
48%
Fair, margin removed
41.8%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5 Gwei
20.9%
Polymarket 24%(20.9% fair)polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
5 Gwei
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
20.9%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
20 Gwei
13.6%
Polymarket 15.7%(13.6% fair)polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
20 Gwei
Last price
15.7%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
25 Gwei
9.3%
Polymarket 10.7%(9.3% fair)polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 19.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $510 (5.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
25 Gwei
Last price
10.7%
Fair, margin removed
9.3%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
19.6¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$510 (5.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
15 Gwei
7.9%
Polymarket 9%(7.8% fair)polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
15 Gwei
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
40 Gwei
6.5%
Polymarket 7.4%(6.4% fair)polled, 58 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
40 Gwei
Last price
7.4%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled 58 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: dune.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 10 Gwei
  • 5 Gwei
  • 20 Gwei

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?". 10 Gwei leads at 41.8%. Next is 5 Gwei at 20.9%. $19K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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