The Prediction Markets

What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$83K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 2000 97%

Next is At least 2500 at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 2000
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2000
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 2500
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 2500
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3000
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3000
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 3500
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 3500
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4000
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4000
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 4500
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 4500
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 5000
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 5000
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CDC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 2000
  • At least 2500
  • At least 3000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?". At least 2000 leads at 97%. Next is At least 2500 at 88%. $83K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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