The Prediction Markets

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 22, 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

6.1 or more 95.4%

Next is 5.5 to 5.6 at 2.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

6.1 or more 95.4%5.5 to 5.6 2.1%5.3 to 5.4 2%5.9 to 6.0 0.3%5.7 to 5.8 0.1%Under 5.3 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
6.1 or more
95.4%
Polymarket 98%(95.4% fair)polled, 26s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.1 or more
Last price
98%
Fair, margin removed
95.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5 to 5.6
2.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5 to 5.6
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Polymarket
5.3 to 5.4
2%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.3 to 5.4
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$758
Trade this on Polymarket
5.9 to 6.0
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.9 to 6.0
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.7 to 5.8
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.7 to 5.8
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Polymarket
Under 5.3
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Under 5.3
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: earthquake.usgs.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 6.1 or more
  • 5.5 to 5.6
  • 5.3 to 5.4

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the biggest earthquake be on October 22, 2026?". 6.1 or more leads at 95.4%. Next is 5.5 to 5.6 at 2.1%. $7K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 22, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 22, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 22, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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