The Prediction Markets

What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

45 15%

Next is 50 at 15%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
45
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
45
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
50
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
50
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$586
Trade this on Polymarket
60
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
60
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
55
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
55
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
70
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
70
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
35
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
35
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$852
Trade this on Polymarket
30
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
30
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$312
Trade this on Polymarket
25
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
25
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 45
  • 50
  • 60

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?". 45 leads at 15%. Next is 50 at 15%. $7K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (BVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” or “Low” value equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index “High” and “Low” values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/BVIV, with the chart settings on “1m” for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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