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What the markets expect
Event does not qualify 91%
Next is Vaccine / Vaccination at 18%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Event does not qualify91%91%81¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 45s ago95¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Event does not qualify91%Kalshi 91%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Event does not qualify
91%
91%
81¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
95¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Event does not qualify
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Event does not qualify
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $4K
Vaccine / Vaccination18%18%4¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 45s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)Vaccine / Vaccination18%Kalshi 18%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Vaccine / Vaccination
18%
18%
4¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Vaccine / Vaccination
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vaccine / Vaccination
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $660
Right To Repair13%13%4¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 45s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Right To Repair13%Kalshi 13%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Right To Repair
13%
13%
4¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Right To Repair
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Right To Repair
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $446
Ethanol / E1511%11%2¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 45s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Ethanol / E1511%Kalshi 11%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Ethanol / E15
11%
11%
2¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Ethanol / E15
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ethanol / E15
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $1K
Abortion10%10%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 45s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Abortion10%Kalshi 10%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Abortion
10%
10%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Abortion
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Abortion
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $146
Pesticide / Herbicide8%8%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 45s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Pesticide / Herbicide8%Kalshi 8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Pesticide / Herbicide
8%
8%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Pesticide / Herbicide
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pesticide / Herbicide
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $707
Trump (3+ times)8%8%4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 45s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Trump (3+ times)8%Kalshi 8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Trump (3+ times)
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Trump (3+ times)
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trump (3+ times)
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Eminent Domain7%7%1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 45s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Eminent Domain7%Kalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Eminent Domain
7%
7%
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Eminent Domain
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eminent Domain
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $241
Budget / Deficit6%6%5¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 45s ago31¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $323 (3.23x)Budget / Deficit6%Kalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Budget / Deficit
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
31¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Budget / Deficit
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Budget / Deficit
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $887
Data Center6%6%6¢ bid, 52¢ askpolled, 45s ago52¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $192 (1.92x)Data Center6%Kalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Data Center
6%
6%
6¢ bid, 52¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
52¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Data Center
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Data Center
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 52¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $192 (1.92x)
- Volume
- $755
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Cancer (3+ times)5%5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 45s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Cancer (3+ times)5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Cancer (3+ times)
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Cancer (3+ times)
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cancer (3+ times)
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $321
China / Chinese5%5%5¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 45s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)China / Chinese5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
China / Chinese
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
China / Chinese
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China / Chinese
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $517
Corrupt / Corruption5%5%5¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 45s ago40¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $250 (2.50x)Corrupt / Corruption5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Corrupt / Corruption
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
40¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Corrupt / Corruption
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Corrupt / Corruption
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $449
Fraud5%5%5¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, 45s ago43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Fraud5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Fraud
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Fraud
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fraud
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
- Volume
- $541
Medicaid5%5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 45s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Medicaid5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Medicaid
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Medicaid
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Medicaid
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $548
Nitrate5%5%5¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 45s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Nitrate5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Nitrate
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Nitrate
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nitrate
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $440
Property Tax (3+ times)5%5%5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 45s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Property Tax (3+ times)5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Property Tax (3+ times)
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Property Tax (3+ times)
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Property Tax (3+ times)
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $547
Tariff5%5%5¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 45s ago41¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Tariff5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Tariff
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
41¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Tariff
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tariff
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
- Volume
- $546
Voucher / School Choice5%5%5¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 45s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Voucher / School Choice5%Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Voucher / School Choice
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Voucher / School Choice
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Voucher / School Choice
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $623
Glyphosate / Roundup4%4%4¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 45s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Glyphosate / Roundup4%Kalshi 4%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Glyphosate / Roundup
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Glyphosate / Roundup
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Glyphosate / Roundup
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $403
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%1%— bid, 15¢ askpolled, 45s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)AI / Artificial Intelligence1%Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
1%
1%
— bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 45s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
AI / Artificial Intelligence
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $852
Who resolves this market
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Event does not qualify
- Vaccine / Vaccination
- Right To Repair
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate?". Event does not qualify leads at 91%. Next is Vaccine / Vaccination at 18%. $18K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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