The Prediction Markets

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$153K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 1.75% 99%

Next is Above 1.00% at 98%. The venues differ most on 6.0% (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 10%), a 9.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 1.75%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.75%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$113
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.00%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.00%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$612
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.25%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.25%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
70¢
Volume
$851
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.25%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.25%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.50%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.50%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
70¢
Volume
$196
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.00%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 27s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.00%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Volume
$233
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.50%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.75%
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.75%
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.00%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.00%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.50%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.50%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Above 3.25%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.25%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.75%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.75%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25%
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25%
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.5%
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.5%
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.50%
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.50%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.75%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.75%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.25%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.25%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.00%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.00%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.75%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.75%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.0%
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.0%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5.25%
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.25%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0%
8.8%
Polymarket 8.8%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 16.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $592 (5.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$592 (5.92x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Polymarket
3.25%
7.3%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.25%
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$867
Trade this on Polymarket
3.75%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.75%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$845
Trade this on Polymarket
5.25%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.25%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.0%Arb
3.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 27s agoKalshi 10%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.0%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$632
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.75%
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 280 bps before fees.

Above 6.00%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.00%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$916
Trade this on Kalshi
2.75%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.75%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$839
Trade this on Polymarket
5.75%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.75%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.5%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.5%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 27s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 6.0% on Polymarket at 0.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 3¢ (280 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Polymarket reads it after the December FOMC meeting; Kalshi at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, so an emergency move in between splits them.
  • Kalshi rungs are strict 'Above X%'; Polymarket lists exact levels. Rungs are linked only where the 25 bp grid makes them identical; other rungs are derived sums.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: federalreserve.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Polymarket reads it after the December FOMC meeting; Kalshi at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, so an emergency move in between splits them.
  • Kalshi rungs are strict 'Above X%'; Polymarket lists exact levels. Rungs are linked only where the 25 bp grid makes them identical; other rungs are derived sums.
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 1.75%
  • Above 1.00%
  • Above 2.25%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 1.75% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?". Above 1.75% leads at 99%. Next is Above 1.00% at 98%. $153K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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