The Prediction Markets

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

318K - $323K 32.1%

Next is 323K - $327K at 23.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

318K - $323K 32.1%323K - $327K 23.7%313K - $318K 16.8%327K+ 15.8%303K - $308K 4.8%2 others 6.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
318K - $323K
32.1%
Polymarket 34.5%(32.1% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 35.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $279 (2.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
318K - $323K
Last price
34.5%
Fair, margin removed
32.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35.8¢
Sell Yes
33.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$279 (2.79x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
323K - $327K
23.7%
Polymarket 25.5%(23.7% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
323K - $327K
Last price
25.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
313K - $318K
16.8%
Polymarket 18%(16.7% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
313K - $318K
Last price
18%
Fair, margin removed
16.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
327K+
15.8%
Polymarket 17%(15.8% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
327K+
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
303K - $308K
4.8%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
303K - $308K
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
308K - $313K
4.1%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
308K - $313K
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$803
Trade this on Polymarket
303K
2.7%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
303K
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 318K - $323K
  • 323K - $327K
  • 313K - $318K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?". 318K - $323K leads at 32.1%. Next is 323K - $327K at 23.7%. $24K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/62)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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