The Prediction Markets

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

830K - $851K 31.8%

Next is 809K - $830K at 30.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

830K - $851K 31.8%809K - $830K 30.3%788K - $809K 19.3%767K - $788K 9.6%851K - $870K 4.7%2 others 4.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
830K - $851K
31.8%
Polymarket 34.6%(31.8% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 38.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $260 (2.60x)
Polymarket
Contract
830K - $851K
Last price
34.6%
Fair, margin removed
31.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38.5¢
Sell Yes
30.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$260 (2.60x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
809K - $830K
30.3%
Polymarket 33%(30.3% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
809K - $830K
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
30.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
788K - $809K
19.3%
Polymarket 21.1%(19.3% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 24.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $415 (4.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
788K - $809K
Last price
21.1%
Fair, margin removed
19.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.1¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$415 (4.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
767K - $788K
9.6%
Polymarket 10.5%(9.6% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
767K - $788K
Last price
10.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
851K - $870K
4.7%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
851K - $870K
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$956
Trade this on Polymarket
870K+
3.2%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
870K+
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
767K
1.1%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
767K
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 830K - $851K
  • 809K - $830K
  • 788K - $809K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?". 830K - $851K leads at 31.8%. Next is 809K - $830K at 30.3%. $16K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/55)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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