The Prediction Markets

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

458K - $463K 21.7%

Next is 463K - $468K at 19.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

458K - $463K 21.7%463K - $468K 19.7%468K - $473K 13.3%473K - $478K 13.3%482K+ 12.7%2 others 19.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
458K - $463K
21.7%
Polymarket 32.5%(21.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
458K - $463K
Last price
32.5%
Fair, margin removed
21.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Polymarket
463K - $468K
19.7%
Polymarket 29.5%(19.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
463K - $468K
Last price
29.5%
Fair, margin removed
19.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
468K - $473K
13.3%
Polymarket 20%(13.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
468K - $473K
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Polymarket
473K - $478K
13.3%
Polymarket 20%(13.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
473K - $478K
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Polymarket
482K+
12.7%
Polymarket 19%(12.7% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
482K+
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
12.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Polymarket
458K
11.3%
Polymarket 17%(11.3% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
458K
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$187
Trade this on Polymarket
478K - $482K
8%
Polymarket 12%(8% fair)polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
478K - $482K
Last price
12%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 458K - $463K
  • 463K - $468K
  • 468K - $473K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?". 458K - $463K leads at 21.7%. Next is 463K - $468K at 19.7%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Denver, Colorado Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Denver, Colorado Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2899750). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1800 square feet, which is the median home size in the Denver, Colorado Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/63)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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