The Prediction Markets

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

Closes
Jan 11, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

407K - $411K 37.7%

Next is 403K - $407K at 33.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

407K - $411K 37.7%403K - $407K 33.3%403K 10.3%415K - $419K 5.9%411K - $415K 5.7%2 others 7.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
407K - $411K
37.7%
Polymarket 38.5%(37.7% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
407K - $411K
Last price
38.5%
Fair, margin removed
37.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
403K - $407K
33.3%
Polymarket 34%(33.3% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
403K - $407K
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
33.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
403K
10.3%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
403K
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
415K - $419K
5.9%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
415K - $419K
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
4.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
411K - $415K
5.7%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
411K - $415K
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
423K+
5%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
423K+
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$722
Trade this on Polymarket
419K - $423K
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
419K - $423K
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 407K - $411K
  • 403K - $407K
  • 403K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?". 407K - $411K leads at 37.7%. Next is 403K - $407K at 33.3%. $29K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 11, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57)

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets