The Prediction Markets

What will the price of $DYDX be on September 29, 2021?

Closed
Sep 29, 2021
Traded
$169K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 29, 2021. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

  • Polymarket

No outcome is trading right now. Check back when the venues reopen this market.

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: coingecko.com

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will the price of $DYDX be on September 29, 2021?". $169K has traded across 0 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Sep 29, 2021.

This is a scalar market on what the price of $DYDX will be on September 29, 2021, at 12:00 PM ET. The lower bound for this market is $16, and the upper bound is $24. The resolution source for this market will be prices listed on CoinGecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dydx). This market will resolve on the “C” (i.e. closing price) listed for the candle titled “Wed 29 September 2021, 12:00:00”, with the “Price” tab selected, in the Eastern Time Zone. Note, this 12:00:00 candle lists the opening price for 11:30:00 AM ET and the closing price for 12:00:00 PM ET. To allow for updates, this market will resolve on the number listed for the referenced candle at exactly 12:25:00 PM ET, on September 29, 2021. (To see the candlestick close price, click the candlestick icon, and observe the number after the “C:” when you hover over a candlestick for a given time period.) If Coingecko is unavailable at the resolution time, another credible source will be chosen in good faith to resolve the market. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with $DYDX’s price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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