The Prediction Markets

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?

Closes
Nov 19, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Flood / Flooding 95%

Next is Mississippi / Alaska at 93%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Flood / Flooding
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just nowBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flood / Flooding
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Mississippi / Alaska
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, just nowBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi / Alaska
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$247
Trade this on Kalshi
Dow
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dow
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (5+ times)
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, just nowBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Ballot
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ballot
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Russell Brand
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russell Brand
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$444
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, just nowBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Hegseth
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, just nowBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$255
Trade this on Kalshi
Europe / European
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Europe / European
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Poll / Polling
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poll / Polling
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Iowa / Kansas
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa / Kansas
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
NFL / Football
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
NFL / Football
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Talarico
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Talarico
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Helicopter
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Helicopter
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$22
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Flood / Flooding
  • Mississippi / Alaska
  • Midterm

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?". Flood / Flooding leads at 95%. Next is Mississippi / Alaska at 93%. $2K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 19, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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