The Prediction Markets

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?

Closes
Nov 23, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
21 h ago
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What the markets expect

Nvidia 96%

Next is Hegseth at 95%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 21 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Nvidia
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Kalshi
Hegseth
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Impeach / Impeachment
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Impeach / Impeachment
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (5+ times)
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Flood / Flooding
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flood / Flooding
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Poland / Polish
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Poland / Polish
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Kalshi
Biden
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Dow
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dow
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$137
Trade this on Kalshi
Pope Leo
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$307
Trade this on Kalshi
Job / Unemployment
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Job / Unemployment
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Europe / European
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Europe / European
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Kalshi
ICE
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$66
Trade this on Kalshi
Data Center
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Data Center
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Measles
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 21 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Measles
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 21 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Nvidia
  • Hegseth
  • Impeach / Impeachment

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?". Nvidia leads at 96%. Next is Hegseth at 95%. $3K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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