The Prediction Markets

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?

Closes
Nov 24, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

Cite these odds

Free to quote with credit. Prices move, so keep the time.

Citation

Link to the live page
Image1200 × 675 card with the time printed on itDownload PNG

How to describe the numbers, and the reuse terms, are on the press page.

Embed this on your site

Free to use with the credit link. Prices refresh every minute.

Widget
Theme
Size

The script resizes the frame to fit; the iframe works without it.

Newsletters can’t run the live widget, so this is a picture of it with the time printed on it, linking to the live page.

What the markets expect

Hegseth 97%

Next is Impeach / Impeachment at 96%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hegseth
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hegseth
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Impeach / Impeachment
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Impeach / Impeachment
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (5+ times)
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Kalshi
Nvidia
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Midterm
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Flood / Flooding
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flood / Flooding
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Abu Dhabi
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abu Dhabi
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$873
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
AI / Artificial Intelligence
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Epstein
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Epstein
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Job / Unemployment
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Job / Unemployment
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Measles
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Measles
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthropic
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Kalshi
Pope
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pope
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hegseth
  • Impeach / Impeachment
  • Trump (5+ times)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?". Hegseth leads at 97%. Next is Impeach / Impeachment at 96%. $4K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets