The Prediction Markets

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?

Closes
Nov 5, 2026, in 13 days
Traded
$28K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Midterm 97%

Next is Ramaswamy at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Midterm
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midterm
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ramaswamy
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ramaswamy
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Ukraine
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trump (5+ times)
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (5+ times)
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$725
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Kalshi
Diesel
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diesel
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Putin
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Putin
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nor'easter
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nor'easter
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
LeBron
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
LeBron
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
ICE
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Witkoff
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Witkoff
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
World Series
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
World Series
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Norovirus
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norovirus
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Airbnb
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Airbnb
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Midterm
  • Ramaswamy
  • Oil / Gas / Gasoline

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?". Midterm leads at 97%. Next is Ramaswamy at 90%. $28K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 5, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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