The Prediction Markets

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

Closed
Jul 1, 2026
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Between 10% and 19.99%
82.6%
Kalshi 91.9%(82.6% fair)polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 93.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 10% and 19.99%
Last price
91.9%
Fair, margin removed
82.6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
93.9¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 20% and 29.99%
7.1%
Kalshi 7.9%(7.1% fair)polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 20% and 29.99%
Last price
7.9%
Fair, margin removed
7.1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 10%
6.7%
Kalshi 7.5%(6.7% fair)polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 10%
Last price
7.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.7%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 60%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 60%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 30% and 39.99%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 30% and 39.99%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 40% and 49.99%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 40% and 49.99%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 50% and 60%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3018 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 50% and 60%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$222
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the President of the United States, the United States Congress, The New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Between 10% and 19.99%
  • Between 20% and 29.99%
  • Below 10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?". Between 10% and 19.99% last traded at 82.6%. Next is Between 20% and 29.99% at 7.1%. $13K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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