The Prediction Markets

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

Closes
Jan 20, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

World Trade Organization 24%

Next is OECD at 22%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
World Trade Organization
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
World Trade Organization
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
OECD
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
OECD
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Inter-American Development Bank
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inter-American Development Bank
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$293
Trade this on Kalshi
World Bank Group
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
World Bank Group
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$713
Trade this on Kalshi
International Monetary Fund
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
International Monetary Fund
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$254
Trade this on Kalshi
Interpol
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Interpol
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
United Nations
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
United Nations
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
G7
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
G7
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
G20
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
G20
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
International Atomic Energy Agency
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
International Atomic Energy Agency
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, United States Congress, The New York Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • World Trade Organization
  • OECD
  • Inter-American Development Bank

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?". World Trade Organization leads at 24%. Next is OECD at 22%. $22K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 20, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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