The Prediction Markets

What will the White House Press Secretary say in the next press briefing?

Closes
Feb 1, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Trump (3+ times) 80%

Next is Iran / Iranian at 61%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Trump (3+ times)
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump (3+ times)
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran / Iranian
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran / Iranian
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democrat
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oil / Gas / Gasoline
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$572
Trade this on Kalshi
Russia / Ukraine
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia / Ukraine
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
Election / Midterm
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Election / Midterm
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Kalshi
Inflation
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Inflation
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Kalshi
Economy / Economic
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Economy / Economic
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$149
Trade this on Kalshi
AI / Artificial Intelligence
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Border
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Border
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
Nuclear
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nuclear
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Biden
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Biden
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Fake News
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fake News
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Illegal Alien
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illegal Alien
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
Leavitt
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leavitt
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
China / Chinese
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
China / Chinese
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Venezuela
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$55
Trade this on Kalshi
Fraud
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fraud
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
ICE
17.5%
Kalshi 17.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICE
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
California
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
California
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
America First
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
America First
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fentanyl
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fentanyl
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tariff
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tariff
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afford / Affordable / Affordability
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Kalshi
Event does not qualify/occur
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Event does not qualify/occur
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crypto / Bitcoin
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crypto / Bitcoin
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: White House, White House Press Secretary

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Trump (3+ times)
  • Iran / Iranian
  • Democrat

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "What will the White House Press Secretary say in the next press briefing?". Trump (3+ times) leads at 80%. Next is Iran / Iranian at 61%. $20K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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